Carbon / EU Emissions Trading System / ten parties
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Coriolis Hive / Carbon
Europe's carbon capis above what it emits,for now.
The 2026 legal cap is 1,185.4 million tonnes. Power plants, factories and ships emitted 1,123.3 million in 2024, 62.1 under it. The cap falls by about 88 million every year, so at 2024 levels the Hive projects the 2027 cap would sit below them.
Modelled scenarios from sourced figures. The parties are simulated. Nothing here is a binding determination.
Cap 2026
0Mt
Emitted 2024
0Mt
Under the cap
0Mt
Given free
0%
Emissions by party against the 2026 cap1,123.3 of 1,185.4 Mt2024 verified emissions, installations and shipping. COM(2025) 735 and the Commission's installation file.
Emissions per km²lowhigh
Scenario: The 2026 cap
0days to 2030, the 62% target
Columns: 2024 verified emissions (outline), the scenario (solid) and the share given free (pale sleeve). The cap is one EU-wide quantity, shown in the panel and over the North Sea. Heat: each party's emissions in the scenario per km² of its territory. Haze and shipping lanes are illustrative. Terrain: NASA Visible Earth. Ask and Negotiate are live AI working from the sourced figures; the parties are simulated.