Case Studies

Twelve real disputes.
One neutral recommendation engine.

Each panel below is not a mockup. It calls the same live alpha allocation engine, against real-world-grounded demo data, for two contested zones per domain, live across all six domains equally.

Fisheries

Northwest Pacific Collapse

China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and Taiwan all fish the same Northwest Pacific stocks with no binding shared quota. Squid and sardine catches have fallen double digits in under a decade as every fleet races to catch before the others do. There is no neutral body with the authority to set a single number everyone accepts.

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Carbon

EU ETS Over-Allocation

The EU Emissions Trading System is the world's largest carbon market, but free allowances to heavy industry have repeatedly outpaced the bloc's 2030 reduction targets, weakening the price signal the entire system depends on. Reallocating the budget politically takes years of negotiation between member states and sectors.

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Freshwater

The Nile Basin Standoff

Egypt depends on the Nile for the vast majority of its freshwater. Ethiopia continues filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam upstream. Over a decade of negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan has not produced a binding water-sharing agreement, and each new rainy season restarts the same standoff.

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Orbital / Spectrum

The LEO Mega-Constellation Race

Starlink, OneWeb, Kuiper and Guowang are deploying tens of thousands of satellites into the same low-Earth-orbit shells with no shared traffic authority. A single major collision risks a Kessler cascade that could render parts of orbit unusable for decades. No operator wants to be the one who self-limits first.

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Forests

Amazon Basin Carbon Credits

Brazil, Peru, Colombia and Bolivia all hold sovereign rights over their share of the Amazon, while REDD+ carbon-credit financing for standing forest remains fragmented and inconsistently verified across borders, leaving the basin's biggest carbon sink under-financed relative to the deforestation pressure on it.

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Mining

DRC Cobalt: Kolwezi / Lualaba

The DRC supplies roughly 70% of the world's cobalt, almost all of it from Kolwezi and Lualaba. Industrial concessionaires, the state, and artisanal mining cooperatives all hold overlapping claims on the same deposits, with no neutral body weighing extraction rate against reserve depletion or the communities living on top of the ore.

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Fisheries

The NE Atlantic Mackerel War

Norway, the UK, Iceland and the Faroe Islands struck a 2026 mackerel quota deal in December 2025, 299,010 tonnes, without the EU at the table again, which called itself "deeply concerned." ICES's own science-based advice put the sustainable ceiling at just 174,357 tonnes. The dispute over who sets Atlantic mackerel quotas has run without a full coastal-states agreement since 2010.

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Carbon

The Rainforest Credit Integrity Crisis

A nine-month Guardian/Die Zeit/SourceMaterial investigation into Verra-certified rainforest carbon credits, the leading voluntary offset standard, found the large majority of the avoided-deforestation credits examined represented no real climate benefit. Verra disputes the finding, arguing the study's methodology doesn't fit REDD+ projects. Either way, the voluntary offset market has no shared, neutral mechanism for weighing a project's claimed impact against ground-truth deforestation data.

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Freshwater

The Mekong's Upstream Dam Standoff

China's Lancang cascade of eleven-plus dams sits upstream of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand, all dependent on Mekong flow and sediment the dams can hold back or release at will. The Mekong River Commission has represented the four downstream nations since 1995, but has no binding authority over China, which participates only as a "dialogue partner." China pledged in 2023 to share full dam-operations data by year's end; as of 2024 it was still sending only 12-hour flow readings from two gauges.

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Orbital / Spectrum

The C-Band Spectrum Clearing

When the US needed C-band spectrum cleared for 5G in 2020, the FCC could order it and back the order with $9.7 billion in incentive payments to Intelsat, SES and other license holders, a domestic regulator with the authority and the budget to force a resolution. Most spectrum and orbital-slot disputes aren't that lucky: they cross borders, involve operators licensed under different national authorities, and have no equivalent body with both the mandate and the money to just settle it.

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Forests

The Cerrado: Deforestation's New Frontier

Brazil's Forest Code lets landowners clear up to 80% of their land in the Cerrado savanna, versus just 20% in the Amazon, a legal gap that's made the Cerrado deforestation's new frontier as Amazon protections tighten. Clearing surged roughly 43–45% in 2023 to a five-year high, and in the year to July 2024 only about half of Cerrado clearing was even legally authorized. It's Brazil's second-largest biome and a major carbon store, with far weaker legal protection than its more famous neighbor.

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Mining

Cobre Panama: Shut Down by Its Own Supreme Court

First Quantum Minerals signed a new 20-year contract for the Cobre Panama copper mine in October 2023. Weeks of mass protests followed, among the largest in Panama's history, and on November 27, 2023 the Supreme Court ruled the contract unconstitutional. The government ordered the mine, roughly 5% of Panama's GDP and 75% of its exports, closed immediately. First Quantum's arbitration claim was paused in 2025 amid talks with the new government; as of a mid-2026 deadline, Panama still hasn't decided whether the mine reopens or shuts for good.

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Every number above is computed,
not written.

The same multi-factor model runs across all 33 modeled zones, every domain. Explore the full mission control dashboard, or get in touch about piloting the fisheries engine.

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